2020 winter wheat area forecast nearly 10 per cent down but farmers disagree

AHDB’s Early Bird Survey ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds/early-bird-survey, released on November 25, provides a snapshot of farmers’ intentions for winter and spring crops as of mid-November.

But the unpredictable impacts of the weather over the coming weeks means AHDB will rerun the survey in the new year to ensure it reflects the latest intentions of growers as the winter progresses and weather conditions change.

According to the survey, the winter barley area may also drop to 398,000ha, 12 per cent lower than the 452,000ha planted for harvesting in 2019.

The annual survey, which is carried out for AHDB by the Andersons Centre, Association of Independent Crop Consultants (AICC) and other agronomists, is the first assessment of national cropping for the harvest year. It includes crops in the ground, winter crops still to be sown through December and January and intentions for spring plantings.

This year’s survey shows a swing towards spring cropping, with growers intending to plant 28 per cent more spring barley at 915,000ha, the highest area since 1988.

The oat area is expected to increase again for 2020 harvest to a total of 200,000ha of winter and spring oats, a 10 per cent increase on last year.

But farmers took to Twitter to dispute the figures. Brett Askew, NFU North East Crops Board chairman estimates only 50 per cent of winter cereals planted across the country and nearer 40 per cent wheat. "There is a big difference between intentions and actual plantings. Farmer meetings have shown that less than 50 per cent of winter cereal crops have been planted of which much is in poor condition. Many farmers have planted little to no wheat at all."