Farmers have benefited from lower fuel prices over the last few months, but costs of a range of key inputs are now creeping up.
Fertiliser supplier CF increased its nitrate prices by £8/tonne last week, an indication of a firmer market, according to Calum Findlay, of ADM Agriculture.
World urea prices are about 40 per cent higher than they were at the start of the coronavirus crisis.
Mr Findlay said: “UK markets are relatively quiet, although farmers are returning to it, aware prices are increasing and a potentially large demand for N this coming season looks likely to underpin the market."
British farmers may get caught up in a trade dispute which is brewing between the US and Russia, which could see America impose an anti-dumping duty on Russian phosphate.
Mr Findlay said that could lead to a spike in demand and prices as users rush to secure supplies before any duty is imposed.
Oil prices plunged at the beginning of the pandemic as demand for fuel slumped.
At one point a massive surplus of oil meant prices were negative, but they are now at US$45 (£34) a barrel, which is still nearly US$20/barrel (£15/barrel) less than a year ago.
Red diesel prices remain lower than before the crisis, averaging less than 50 pence a litre last week, which compared to nearly 60ppl a year ago and at the start of the year.
Feed prices are set to be a little higher than last year, although grain prices have not risen so far and fast as first expected.
Feed wheat prices are nearly 15 per cent higher than a year ago and the grain will be more scarce in the UK than last year because of reduced winter plantings.
Barley is in more plentiful supply, but prices are still about 6 per cent more than last year.
Straw is likely to be in shorter supply than previous years because of the reduced wheat area and dry conditions throughout much of the crop growing season.
According to British Hay and Straw merchant figures quoted by AHDB, wheat straw prices rose in the first half of the year from less than £40/tonne to £55/t.
In the drought-impacted 2018/19 season prices rose to £100/t.