‘It is a reminder about the glut of UK grains at a very uncertain time’

AHDB analyst Peter Collier said the wheat production estimate had come as ‘little surprise’ given the yields recorded and crop prospects.

“Yet this does cement the export requirement and ongoing need for UK markets to be globally competitive for the foreseeable future,” he said.

He said barley production figures had come out higher than industry expectations and at 8.180mt it would be the largest barley crop in at least 30 years, although this would require significantly higher yields than AHDB’s harvest survey suggested.

“With domestic consumption of barley typically around 6mt, this would create a 2mt exportable in a year of potential trade disruptions.”

CRM AgriCommodities, Benjamin Bodart, said the figures would come as no surprise to the markets and historically Defra’s tended to overestimate its wheat production forecast by about 130,000t and 60,000t for barley.

“The impact of the report will be limited as it has been known for some time now,” he said.

“We were at 16.1mt wheat and 8mt barley for a long time so it is definitely not a surprise to the market.

“I would rather say that it is a reminder about the glut of UK grains at a very uncertain time re export programmes.”