But US exports could put a cap on European rapeseed prices.
Despite trade tensions with China over soybeans, US farmers were still looking to plant large quantities of soybeans this spring making it seem likely large stocks will continue to pressure the market.
AHDB analyst Aidan Wright said the US had failed to shift large enough volumes of soybeans this season due to the continued trade tensions with China.
“Despite these unresolved political issues, current price ratios between US maize and soybean futures still indicate a slightly higher return for planting soybeans,” he said.
“It seems like areas may remain high as a result.”
Commodity analytics firm Allendale published its annual planting intentions survey which estimated a 2 million hectare reduction of last season’s area. However, this would still be the third largest on record.
“Even if trade resumes between the US and China, exports are unlikely to have their previous shine," Mr Wright added.
“Reduced Chinese demand for soyameal, because of African swine fever and deliberate diversification into other protein meals, means that exports are unlikely to significantly dent US stocks.”
This meant the US would look to European destinations, which could cap possible rises in EU rapeseed prices.
It came as tensions between Canada and China in the rapeseed markets have still not moved forward and David Woodland at Gleadell said this looked likely to add to the growing levels of global old crop stock.
“It was hoped that this trade disruption could bring some fresh rapeseed oil business to the EU, but as yet there has been nothing of any significance and Matif futures have remained largely rangebound.”
In South America, positive weather suggested soybean planting prospects were optimistic, Mr Woodland said.
And the rapeseed area in Europe for 2019 harvest was down but crops have come through winter well, with a similar situation in the Black Sea region.
“In the UK our domestic currency volatility continues to dominate farmgate prices,” he added.