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Scotland's prime cattle numbers expected to tighten

Scotland’s calf registration during 2019 reached 552,700 head, the same as 2018 but 2.5 per cent lower than in 2017, according to the latest market commentary by Quality Meat Scotland (QMS).

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Scotland's prime cattle numbers expected to tighten

The registrations show a continuing trend towards native breed sires which now account for about 28 per cent of all registrations, up from 20 per cent a decade ago.

 

Aberdeen Angus dominates the native breeds accounting for 19 per cent of all Scottish calf registrations, up from 14 per cent 10 years ago.

 

The figures also reveal a reduction in the importance of dairy-sired calves.

 

Despite the Scottish dairy herd maintaining its size over the past year, the number of dairy-sired calves fell by 3.5 per cent between 2018 and 2019 with all of the fall was in dairy-sired males.

 

“This reflects the growth in the use of sexed semen to produce replacement dairy stock leaving scope to increase the use of beef sires on a greater number of dairy cows,” said Stuart Ashworth, director of economics Services at QMS.

 

“Associated with this, beef-sired calf registrations in Scotland increased despite a fall in the size of the suckler herd.”


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This pattern is repeated in both England and Wales which show a decline in dairy-sired male calves of 11 per cent between 2018 and 2019, while female dairy calf registrations are broadly unchanged.

 

“Collectively this adoption of science has contributed to a switch of around 34,000 head of cattle in GB from dairy-sired beef from the dairy herd, to beef-sired animals from the dairy herd over the past year,” said Mr Ashworth.

 

Closer examination of calf registration data also reveals that while the age profile of female cattle under 30 months of age on farms is unchanged over a number of years, the profile of male cattle has changed with a greater proportion being slaughtered at a younger age.

 

The average age prime male cattle are slaughtered at in the UK has fallen by around a fortnight in the past five years,” said Mr Ashworth.

 

During 2020, prime slaughter cattle will be largely drawn from those animals born during 2018 and, because there were fewer than born in 2017 and with some having been sold younger, this points to a slightly tighter supply of prime cattle in 2019.

Irish beef herd 

Irish beef herd 

The recently released December 2019 census results from Ireland show a similar pattern there, with the number of 1-2 year-old cattle on Irish farms falling 2.7 percent from a year ago and the number of male cattle in this age group falling 4 per cent.

 

Prime cattle supplies in Ireland can therefore also be expected to tighten through 2020.

 

“Economic theory tells us that tighter supplies support prices but the caveat to that is that demand must remain firm domestically and internationally and access to international markets must be open with minimal constraints,” added Mr Ashworth.

 

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