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What does the Trump victory mean for farming?

Rural votes across swing states helped boost Trump to victory



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What does the #Trump victory mean for farming? #USElection2016

Rural votes helped to speed Donald Trump to victory but Hillary Clinton also lost ground in urban areas.

 

Swing states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania have large rural populations. Rural residents account for 22 percent of Ohio’s population and 21 percent of Pennsylvania’s, according to the 2010 census, and support in these states helped drive his victory.

 

At a rally in Iowa in August, Mr Trump accused Hillary Clinton of wanting to ‘shut down family farms just like the mines and the steelworks’.

 

Over the short term, a weaker dollar could provide a boost for US agriculture as it makes exports more attractive abroad and imports more expensive.


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Trade

 

Mr Trump has said he would reverse the industrial decline in America by erecting tariffs on imports and tearing up free trade agreements, so British food exports to the USA could be threatened by similar protectionist policies in the agricultural sector.

 

He has suggested a withdrawal from the World Trade Organisation, threatened to scrap North American Free Trade Agreement deal with Canada and Mexico and said he could withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

 

 

Negotiations between the EU and the US over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) could also be cast aside.

 

He has proposed 35 per cent tariffs on Mexican goods and 45 per cent tariffs on goods from China which could mean US goods face retaliatory tariffs, making exporting agricultural goods more difficult. However, it could provide opportunities for US goods to replace imports on the domestic market.


Labour

 

Some of Mr Trump’s most famous comments have been his proposal to build a wall across the border with Mexico and bring back jobs from China and Mexico.

 

According to the National Agricultural Workers Survey, 78 per cent of US farm workers are foreign born. Any change in migration policy, could potentially impact US farms across the country.


Brexit

Brexit

 

The election result has been frequently compared to the Brexit result and former UKIP leader Nigel Farage has been a major supporter of Donald Trump.

 

Like the Brexit results, the rural vote was influential and both votes have been seen as a rejection of globalisation.

 

While Barack Obama warned before the EU referendum Britain would be at the back of the queue for trade deals, Mr Trump has supported the UK’s Brexit decision and could look to trade deals with Britain, providing opportunities for British exporters.

 

Theresa May has congratulated the new president.

 

"Britain and the United States have an enduring and special relationship based on the values of freedom, democracy and enterprise.

 

"We are, and will remain, strong and close partners on trade, security and defence.

 

"I look forward to working with President-elect Donald Trump, building on these ties to ensure the security and prosperity of our nations in the years ahead."

EU

Jean-Claude Juncker congratulated Donald Trump via Twitter.

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