Wheat markets look to exports as two million tonnes earmarked for shipping

Harvest pressure has continued to weigh on the UK market, with farmers still reporting high yields as most in the southern half of the country finished their combining, according to Frontier’s Simon Ingle.

“Wheat production estimates vary widely; between 16 million tonnes and 17mt, but it would seem likely we will need to ship up to 2mt,” he said.

“It is this situation which has pushed UK wheat prices down, but, helped by weak sterling, this has enabled the trade to compete and secure essential export sales.”

Mr Ingle said this was proving a major test for the country’s logistics capability as exporters race to beat Brexit deadlines with most vessels headed for Spain.

He added that ‘technically oversold and perhaps having fallen too far relative to other origins’, UK futures had staged a small rally mid-week last week.

“The flow of wheat to ports will need to continue at a brisk pace to prevent the build-up of burdensome stocks,” he said.

AHDB’s James Webster said in a normal year, surplus wheat would find a home primarily in the EU.

“However, this year is far from normal,” he said.